Monday, February 27, 2012

CRE Cliffnotes 2/27/12


I had asked real estate expert Giselle Bundchen to guest write this week’s CRE Cliffnotes, but for some reason the language in her email didn’t make it through most of your the firewalls.  She did have some choice words about Natural Gas demand.  “Oil prices can’t do it all!”  she noted.  Giselle was referring to the fact that many gas exploration and production companies could have trouble keeping their credit ratings with natural gas prices so low.  Not a problem for oil E&P companies – yesterday oil hit an eight-month high above $121 due to Iran supply worries.  I hope you don’t mind me writing in her stead. 

As always, I hope you find the following articles value added to read or send to friends/clients:
 

NYT: Bullish on Houston

ü  Link 
ü  Short Overview:  You know your city is in a bull market when the establishment of the New York Times writes a optimistic piece about you.  This article highlights that while most cities in the U.S. are in recovery (at best), Houston is full steam ahead and in expansion mode. Silicon Valley is to technology as Houston is to Energy, in that Houston has an infrastructure of talent and the coupling of synergistic companies which create a pulling effect for other energy companies to relocate or start in the city.
ü  Shorter Takeaway:  I would read the NYT more if Jim Arket was quoted more and in the article he rightly calls oil prices and shale exploration the “force multiplier” of  the overall Houston boom.  The question is, how long will this force multiplier last?  It is the wise real estate professional to know that we are in a limited window of heightened demand that will eventually subside – best to act accordingly. 

Rollover Risk:

ü  Link
ü  Short Overview:  I had to temper the overly optimistic previous article with a little cautiousness (it’s good for us blindly optimistic folk).  Let’s face it, nationally there are quite a few  five-year leases signed at historically high 2007 fundamentals that are coming up on renewal this year which will create some varying problems for landlords. 
ü  Shorter Takeaway:  Many office owners around the U.S. that have large rollovers signed in 2007 might find it challenging to renew leases at rent levels signed prior to the downturn, but I would temper this by saying in Houston fundamentals are quickly approaching 2006 and 2007 figures (not there yet, but approaching).   

CBRE 12 Trends for ‘12
ü  Link
ü  Short Overview :   CBRE Economic Advisors has a new report coming out that details the 12 trends of 2012 and this helpful overview has some good takeaways.  The “FUD” (Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt) factor of the European debt saga is the backdrop of caution to what are predominately optimistic trends such as: Class A industrial properties cap rates getting too low of yields for many buyers, and finance jobs recovering as housing slightly improves.
ü  Shorter Takeaway:  We have seen a suburban office market fundamental renaissance here in Houston, and an interesting trend noted is a national recovery in suburban office fundamentals.   

Too much Supply of Texas Tea?
ü  Link
ü  Short Overview :   With Iran causing trouble, the oil  markets have been in a frenzy as brent crude rose to an 8 month high of $121 yesterday. Domestically however, supply is mitigating the price because of our friends in West Texas:   Due to their production, West Texas intermediate crude prices are at a record discount to Brent.
ü  Two Takeaway:  Very interesting to keep our eye on if the rise of oil shale fracking will have a similar impact on the supply side fundamentals of oil market that gas fracking has had on the natural gas market.



The Next Office

ü  Link
ü  Short Overview :   Executives and business leaders are all faced with ever increasing challenge:  Balancing global competition for customers/talent and the driving need to innovate with cost pressures. Amazing how much corporate decisions for office space have to do with each of these challenges.  The building and office design a leader chooses for his/her company directly impacts how employees share information, collaborate, and innovate.  In the end it all ties to the lower right hand corner of the balance sheet. 
ü  Shorter Takeaway:   Office real estate structure and design helps organizations recruit, retain, create, innovate and drive growth – and the savviest of corporations are realizing the power of well-designed space.  This is a great article. 

Stats for the Water Cooler:
·         Natural Gas Supply: E&P companies will reduce dry gas capital spending by 40% in 2012  (Stat)
·         US Rig Count up five last week:  Up 281 year over year (Stat)
·         Oil price falling on demand:  Iran concerns had oil move to $ 104/barrel  (Stat)

Houston CRE News:

·         Oil and Gas Hiring:  Firms scrambling for personnel (Stat)
·         Sidley Austin law firm: Opens Houston Office (temporarily operates at JPMorgan Chase Tower, will be moving to permanent space this year  (link)
·         Stanford Building Lease:  Keller Williams signs lease in old Stanford Office building (link)


As always, thank you for reading and hope you have a great week.

No comments:

Post a Comment